Valuation Analysis
Monte Carlo simulation, scenario analysis, and valuation sensitivity
$180.0B
50.0% probability
$320.0B
+77.8% upside
$75.0B
-58.3% downside
$179.6B
From 5,000 simulations
AI Valuation Analysis
Base case valuation of $45.2B (60% probability). Bull case projects $78.5B assuming successful autonomous launch. Bear case at $18.3B reflects regulatory delays. Monte Carlo simulation shows P10: $22B, P50: $45B, P90: $71B.
Monte Carlo Distribution
Valuation probability distribution from 5,000 simulation runs
P10
$100.0B
P25
$138.1B
P50
$179.6B
P75
$218.7B
P90
$256.1B
Scenario Analysis
Bear Case
25.0%$75.0B
Conservative case with market saturation and competitive pressure.
Key Assumptions:
- •Subscriber growth slows to 5M
- •Increased competition from LEO rivals
- •Higher launch costs
- •Regulatory challenges
Base Case
50.0%$180.0B
Expected case based on current trajectory and market conditions.
Key Assumptions:
- •Reach 10M subscribers by 2030
- •ARPU stabilizes at $100/month
- •Launch costs decline 40%
- •Steady cadence of improvements
Bull Case
25.0%$320.0B
Optimistic case with breakthrough achievements and market expansion.
Key Assumptions:
- •20M+ subscribers by 2030
- •Mars mission success
- •Launch costs drop 70%
- •New B2B revenue streams
Sensitivity Analysis
Impact of key variables on valuation (tornado chart)
Key Valuation Assumptions
Subscribers 2030
10M
ARPU
$100/month
Launch Cost/Kg
$1,500
Churn Rate
2.5%/month
WACC
12%