Risk Assessment
Risk identification, scenario analysis, and mitigation strategies
Overall Risk Level
medium
Risk Categories Assessed
4
Risk Analysis
Key risks: 70% probability of autonomous tech launch by 2027 (binary outcome). Manufacturing execution critical - 40% impact on valuation. Regulatory approval represents 30% downside risk if delayed beyond 2026.
Risk Matrix
Likelihood vs. Impact assessment of key risk factors
Technology Risk
Autonomous driving technology may face delays in regulatory approval or technical challenges
Manufacturing Risk
Production ramp may experience delays or quality issues
Market Risk
EV adoption may slow or competition may intensify
Regulatory Risk
Changes in EV incentives or autonomous regulations
← Low Impact
Impact on Valuation →
High Impact →
← Likelihood →
Risk Categories Detail
Technology Risk
Autonomous driving technology may face delays in regulatory approval or technical challenges
high Risk
L: 30.0% | I: 70.0%
Mitigation Strategies:
- •Diversified revenue streams (automotive, energy)
- •Incremental rollout strategy
- •Conservative timeline assumptions
Manufacturing Risk
Production ramp may experience delays or quality issues
medium Risk
L: 25.0% | I: 40.0%
Mitigation Strategies:
- •Proven manufacturing capabilities
- •Multiple factory locations
- •Conservative production forecasts
Market Risk
EV adoption may slow or competition may intensify
medium Risk
L: 40.0% | I: 35.0%
Mitigation Strategies:
- •Strong brand and technology lead
- •Cost structure advantage
- •Expanding product portfolio
Regulatory Risk
Changes in EV incentives or autonomous regulations
medium Risk
L: 35.0% | I: 50.0%
Mitigation Strategies:
- •Diversified geographic presence
- •Active regulatory engagement
- •Product design flexibility
Risk Scenario Analysis
Potential downside scenarios and their impact on valuation
Autonomous Delay
Autonomous technology approval delayed beyond 2028
Probability
30.0%
Manufacturing Issues
Production targets missed by >20%
Probability
20.0%
Market Saturation
EV market growth slows significantly
Probability
15.0%
Overall Risk Mitigation Strategy
- ✓Maintain strong balance sheet ($25B+ cash)
- ✓Continue R&D investment in autonomy
- ✓Expand manufacturing footprint globally
- ✓Develop additional revenue streams (energy, software)