Valuation Analysis
Monte Carlo simulation, scenario analysis, and valuation sensitivity
$45.2B
60.0% probability
$78.5B
+73.7% upside
$18.3B
-59.5% downside
$45.2B
From 5,000 simulations
AI Valuation Analysis
Base case valuation of $45.2B (60% probability). Bull case projects $78.5B assuming successful autonomous launch. Bear case at $18.3B reflects regulatory delays. Monte Carlo simulation shows P10: $22B, P50: $45B, P90: $71B.
Monte Carlo Distribution
Valuation probability distribution from 5,000 simulation runs
P10
$26.2B
P25
$34.9B
P50
$45.2B
P75
$55.5B
P90
$64.8B
Scenario Analysis
Bear Case
20.0%$18.3B
Conservative case with regulatory and execution delays. Market share loss to competitors.
Key Assumptions:
- •Autonomous launch delayed to 2028
- •Manufacturing challenges persist
- •Lower gross margins (18%)
- •Increased competition
Base Case
60.0%$45.2B
Most likely scenario based on current trajectory and historical execution.
Key Assumptions:
- •Autonomous launch in Q2 2027
- •Steady manufacturing improvements
- •Gross margins reach 23%
- •Energy business grows 12% CAGR
Bull Case
20.0%$78.5B
Optimistic case with technology breakthroughs and accelerated adoption.
Key Assumptions:
- •Autonomous launch in 2026
- •Rapid market adoption (70% success rate)
- •Gross margins exceed 25%
- •Energy storage breakthrough
Sensitivity Analysis
Impact of key variables on valuation (tornado chart)
Key Valuation Assumptions
Autonomous Launch Date
Q2 2027
Vehicle Production CAGR
25%
Gross Margin 2029
23%
WACC
9.5%
Terminal Growth Rate
3%
Energy Revenue CAGR
12%